Deep Dive: Sudan's Civil War - Power Struggles and Humanitarian Collapse

Sudan's civil war broke out in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. It has since become one of Africa's deadliest conflicts.

The two factions were originally meant to guide Sudan's transition to democracy after the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Instead, power struggles, control over resources, and personal rivalries shattered the coalition. The RSF, which grew out of the Janjaweed militias, refused to be folded into the regular armed forces.

What started as a political fight escalated into open battle in Khartoum in April 2023. Since then, the war has spread to Darfur, Kordofan, and other regions, pushing the country into humanitarian collapse.

By October 2025, the SAF still controlled large parts of the north, including Port Sudan, which has functioned as the de facto capital since Khartoum fell apart. The RSF dominates Darfur, large parts of Kordofan, and strategic districts in Khartoum.

Khartoum itself looks like a battlefield split into sectors that each side continues to contest. Satellite imagery shows massive destruction, with more than 60 percent of infrastructure damaged or destroyed. Power and water systems have collapsed.

Both sides rely on artillery and drones. The RSF, backed by foreign fighters and more modern equipment, has proven more mobile. The SAF still has air superiority, but its airstrikes have limited effect.

• The RSF controls strategic gold mines in Darfur, which remain a major source of funding.
• The SAF uses Port Sudan as a supply corridor for weapons imports, mostly from Egypt.
• Both sides are recruiting child soldiers on a large scale, a war crime documented by international monitors.

The humanitarian consequences are catastrophic. According to the UN, more than 8 million people have been internally displaced, making this one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Another 2 million have fled to neighboring states, especially Chad, Egypt, and Ethiopia.

Food security has collapsed. Around 18 million people, nearly 40 percent of the population, face acute food insecurity. In Darfur and parts of Kordofan, famine conditions are already emerging, but armed groups are systematically blocking humanitarian access.

The health system has also broken down. Hospitals have been bombed, and many health workers have fled or been killed. Cholera, malaria, and measles are spreading unchecked, while child mortality has returned to levels not seen since the 1990s.

The Sudan conflict is increasingly internationalized. The United Arab Emirates support the RSF with weapons, logistics, and financing, driven by economic interests in gold and access to Red Sea ports.

Egypt, by contrast, stands firmly behind the SAF. Cairo sees a Hemedti-dominated Sudan as a threat to its own security and to Nile water management. Egyptian weapons and logistical support continue to flow.

Ethiopia plays a more ambiguous role. While Addis Ababa remains officially neutral, Ethiopian militias use the conflict to push their own border interests. Eritrea, Libya, and Wagner-linked fighters complete a deeply fragmented regional picture.

The international community has so far failed to contain the war. UN Security Council resolutions have had little effect because Russia and China block stronger sanctions. The African Union is split and largely powerless.

The United States and the European Union have imposed targeted sanctions and provided humanitarian aid, but political pressure has been weak. Saudi Arabia has tried to broker talks more than once, without lasting success.

The central problem is that both parties still believe they can win militarily, so neither sees much reason to negotiate. As long as regional actors keep fueling the war, a diplomatic settlement remains unlikely.

Three scenarios stand out. First, a prolonged positional war that keeps tearing the country apart. Second, a military victory for one side, most likely the RSF because of its resources and external backing. Third, a negotiated partition, which would destabilize the wider region.

Any of those paths would mean more suffering for civilians. The international community needs to act now through stronger humanitarian support, pressure on regional actors to stop arms deliveries, and serious diplomacy.

Sudan's future depends on breaking the power of the warlords and strengthening those who want a civilian democratic state. Without decisive action, Sudan risks becoming a failed state with consequences far beyond its borders.