Article: Ukraine Winter Logistics 2025/26 - Can Aid Keep Up?

UNOCHA's new Winter Response Plan assumes temperatures as low as -25 C and a 35 percent failure rate in the central power system. Since September, Russia has launched more than 120 precision strikes against substations and gas compressors, twice as many as in the same period last year.

At the same time, 1.9 million displaced people are living in temporary shelters, many of them in industrial buildings without insulation. Aid groups are therefore prioritizing repair kits, window film, and mobile heating systems.

• Ukrenergo says 1,750 km of lines are critically weakened.
• 200,000 people in Kharkiv and Sumy currently have power only eight hours a day.
• Coal stocks for municipal heating plants in many places will last only until mid-January.

Since October, aid groups have been using a shared dashboard that combines haulage mileage, warehouse stock, and air raid alerts. That has extended relief corridors from Dnipro toward the Donbas by as much as 12 hours a week.

In Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, local councils are testing QR-based request forms. Households send missing items through a messenger app, and volunteer networks combine that information with satellite imagery to confirm damage after shelling.

According to UN-LogBase, at least 5 million liters of diesel are still missing if the 14,000 registered generators are to run through winter. Hospitals and pumping stations are the top priority, while many smaller municipalities have no fuel reserve at all.

Transformers and switchgear remain in short supply. Canada, Romania, and South Korea have announced deliveries, but they are unlikely to arrive before January. Repair crews are therefore refurbishing old parts, which extends outage times.

• Ukrzaliznytsia plans 50 additional emergency trains to create heating capacity along the front.
• UNICEF is distributing 600,000 winter kits to children, with a focus on eastern and southern Ukraine.
• The Ukrainian government is asking for 3,000 additional electrical engineers to speed up repairs.

In the short term, diesel and staffing will decide whether shelters stay warm. International partners should cut red tape around fuel deliveries and finance local repair training.

In the medium term, Ukraine needs more modular substations and spare parts that can be preassembled in the EU. Without that redundancy, repeated blackouts will continue to hit hospitals and evacuation centers directly.