The Sahel Security Vacuum: What Happened After Western Forces Left
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French and UN peacekeepers. Two years later, jihadist attacks are at record levels and Russia's Wagner successors are filling the gap.
Key takeaways
- Jihadist attacks in the central Sahel rose 42 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026, according to ACLED data.
- The Russia-linked Africa Corps has deployed an estimated 2,500 personnel across Mali and Burkina Faso, primarily guarding mining sites.
- Civilian displacement in the tri-border area has reached 4.7 million people, the highest figure ever recorded.
The withdrawal timeline
France completed its withdrawal from Mali in August 2022 and from Niger in December 2023. The UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA left Mali by the end of 2023. Burkina Faso asked French forces to leave in early 2023. In each case, military juntas that had seized power through coups argued that Western security partnerships had failed to contain the jihadist threat.
The departures left a significant gap. MINUSMA alone had provided 13,000 troops, intelligence assets, and logistics support across northern and central Mali. No equivalent force replaced them.
The jihadist resurgence
Both JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate) and Islamic State Sahel Province have expanded their operational reach since 2024. JNIM now controls or contests territory in large parts of central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, and the border areas of Togo and Benin.
Attacks on military bases, towns, and convoys have become more frequent and more sophisticated. In February 2026, JNIM fighters briefly overran a garrison town in Mopti region, killing over 60 soldiers — the deadliest single attack in years.
- ACLED recorded 3,400 violent incidents in the Sahel in Q1 2026 alone.
- Islamic State has shifted focus toward Burkina Faso's eastern provinces and the Niger-Nigeria border.
- Benin and Togo are now facing spillover attacks, with both countries deploying additional troops to their northern borders.
Russia's Africa Corps: security partner or resource extractor?
After Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's death in August 2023, Russia reorganized its African operations under the Africa Corps, formally linked to the Russian military. Personnel numbers have grown, but the force focuses primarily on protecting gold mines, government buildings, and senior officials.
Human rights organizations have documented serious abuses. In 2025, reports from central Mali described extrajudicial killings of civilians during anti-insurgency sweeps conducted jointly by Malian forces and Africa Corps fighters. The Malian government has denied all allegations.
Humanitarian consequences
The security deterioration has triggered massive displacement. UNHCR reports 4.7 million internally displaced people across the three countries, with another 1.2 million refugees in neighboring states. Access for humanitarian organizations has shrunk dramatically, with several areas completely unreachable by aid convoys.
Food insecurity is worsening. The Cadre Harmonisé assessment for early 2026 classifies 8.6 million people across the Sahel as facing crisis-level hunger or worse, partly driven by conflict-related disruptions to farming and markets.
Outlook
There is currently no path toward restoring the previous security architecture. Western countries have shifted their focus to coastal West African states, while the Sahel juntas are deepening ties with Russia and, increasingly, with Iran and Turkey. The jihadist groups, meanwhile, are exploiting the vacuum to entrench themselves further.
