Article: What the 12-Day War Between Israel and Iran Revealed
Why the latest exchange between Israel, the United States, and Iran did not become the regional catastrophe many feared, and what still makes the next escalation dangerous.
Key takeaways
- Iranian missile and drone strikes killed 31 people in Israel, but they did not trigger Hezbollah to enter the war.
- Even under heavy pressure, Iran kept a defensive cost-benefit logic to avoid a long war with the United States.
- Moscow and Beijing stayed passive, which shows Tehran cannot count on formal allies in the next round of escalation.
The limited effect of Iran's retaliation
Open sources suggest Tehran fired more than 500 ballistic missiles and around 1,100 drones during the 12 days of war. Even so, the damage in Israel remained far below the nightmare scenarios that had predicted total overload of the air defense network, with 31 dead and about 3,000 injured.
The most important detail was the near-total inactivity of allied groups: the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Shia militias in Iraq all stayed largely on the sidelines. Even after US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, none of them mounted a broad response. Iran's threat of a regional counteroffensive therefore never fully materialized.
- Hezbollah publicly said it would not join the fighting.
- Houthi drone attacks on Israel did not materialize; the focus stayed on symbolic moves in the Red Sea.
- Iran did not use the crisis to walk away from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
A fragile elite - no rally-around-the-flag effect
The expected internal unity inside the Iranian leadership did not appear. Reports of rivalries around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei became more common, while security agencies talked about infiltration. Within weeks of the ceasefire, protests were already returning, which suggests repression alone is no longer enough to enforce loyalty.
The public showed patriotism, but not lasting support for the regime. Power outages, water shortages, and rising prices made it harder for the leadership to commit to a long war of attrition.
Great-power restraint
Neither Russia nor China moved openly to Iran's side. Both governments stuck to carefully worded diplomatic statements and kept their distance to protect ties with the United States. For Tehran, that means strategic self-reliance is still an illusion as long as the economy depends on exports to Asia.
For Israel and the United States, the escalation gives them more arguments for preemptive strikes on Iranian missile sites. At the same time, the risk is rising that the next round will be less predictable if Tehran rebuilds air defenses and missile production in the months ahead.
Outlook: A window of vulnerability
Tehran is trying to harden its air defenses and negotiate faster deliveries from Russia. Israel, meanwhile, is keeping the option of new airstrikes open if uranium enrichment stays above the red line. Another round could escalate much faster, with a higher risk that Iranian commanders will answer with larger retaliation.
For humanitarian actors, that means evacuation plans and medical supply chains in Iran, Iraq, and Syria need to be reviewed. In Israel, the protection of critical infrastructure is again becoming a priority, especially around Tel Aviv and Haifa.